The crypto industry was hit hard last week when the price of BTC fell 10% after breaking the $30,000 mark for the first time in 10 months. But with many on-chain indicators flashing green, it looks like Bitcoin bulls may soon reverse the retracement. But when will Bitcoin get back above $30,000?
Bitcoin price fell 10% last week, but there are many indicators chain Indicating that a fall to $30,000 is more resilient than a fall below $25,000. Investors are likely to reallocate funds from altcoins to bitcoin in the coming days as they trust the broader crypto industry contract.
Investor confidence hit bottom in past month
Market sentiment around Bitcoin reached a level of euphoria on March 12 following the U.S. banking crisis. However, since the BTC price breached the $22,000 mark, investor confidence has plummeted, pushing Bitcoin’s weighted sentiment to its lowest level since March 2.
The weighted sentiment indicator gauges investor expectations by comparing the ratio of positive to negative mentions of an asset on relevant social media channels.
Looking at the chart below, Bitcoin Weight sentiment turned negative after falling from 1.53 to -0.7 between April 11th and 24th.
Bitcoin Price (BTC) vs Weight Psychology, April 2023. source: mood
A drop in social sentiment, combined with increased selling pressure, could lead to a temporary drop in prices. However, once the negative sentiment peaks, it could herald the end of the wild sell-off and the start of a new bull cycle.
Prices have historically tended to move against extreme social expectations investor. If this pattern reappears, Bitcoin price could recover in the next few days.
Wise BTC whales are accumulating
pod of whales with scales in the wallet Bitcoin, which has the highest correlation with BTC price action, appears to be entering another accumulation phase.
The rejection of the $30,000 resistance level has led to a massive sell-off in Bitcoin over the past week. But on-chain data shows how crypto whales holding 100 to 1,000 BTC are buying the dip.
The image below shows that they have added 20,000 BTC to the balance wallet From April 16th to 24th.
Bitcoin price (BTC) vs. Bitcoin supply distribution in April 2023. source: mood
At the current market price of $28,349, the whales’ new investment is worth more than $566 million. When large institutional investors generate such large flows in such a short period of time, it shows their confidence is growing.
Considering their well-timed buying history ahead of bull markets and their impact on retail investors, such large investments by the aforementioned whales could lead to a bullish reversal in Bitcoin.
BTC Price Prediction
Third, out-of-the-money data surrounding IntoTheBlock’s price suggests that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $27,000.
Currently, the $27,500 resistance cluster of 61,000 addresses holds 13,500 BTC. This area is relatively weaker than the $27,100 support level, where 252,000 addresses bought 389,000 BTC.
To enter a bullish reversal, BTC must break the next resistance zone at $28,350 and sustain above it. However, the 1.98 million holders with nearly 756,000 BTC will present a formidable challenge. But if that resistance level is broken, BTC could rally to highs of $32,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) cumulative price points. April 2023. source: enter the block
However, the positive outlook may be invalidated if BTC falls below $27,000. However, as mentioned above, bullish support from 252,000 addresses buying 389,000 BTC at an average price of $27,100 may prevent this decline.
But if this support fails to hold, Bitcoin price could drop to as low as $24,500 before the bulls regroup.
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According to Beincrypto