bitcoin A tumultuous new week kicked off with news of oil supply cuts getting off to a bad start.
BTC/USD still faces significant historical resistance with an unattractive weekly close on news of oil production cuts.
The next rally could show the mettle of the bulls, but the question for analysts is what happens next. Will Oil Prices Determine Market Moves or Can Bitcoin Break the $30,000 Level?
Overall, the outlook is as bright as ever, with network fundamentals likely hitting new highs this week, while real estate supply is also growing.
Let’s take a look at the Bitcoin market as the world embraces the latest move by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with 10 other Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec+).
Oil cuts boost dollar as inflation fears return
A key event over the weekend is the decision to cut global oil production, which is currently changing the macro picture.
OPEC+ has announced voluntary production cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day; this has had a direct impact on the world economy as dollar prices and energy costs rise simultaneously.
This has sparked typical headwinds for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) is trading above 102.7 at press time, up from its April nadir of 102.04.
“Watch DXY this morning…this rally may just fill the gap like I mentioned last week. I’ve been waiting”, float trader Crypto Ed shared on Twitter with an illustrated diagram.
“Time for DXY to show direction (which will affect BTC PA).”
Dollar index chart.Source: Crypto Ed/Twitter
While the OPEC+ move has impacted assets ranging from bitcoin to gold, Goldmoney head of research Alasdair Macleod believes governments will have to inject liquidity to offset any energy price spike, boosting performance in risky assets .
grandfather share On Twitter as follows:
“WTI Crude up $3.6 on production cuts in Middle East and Asia. The market reacts with gold down $13. Market mistakenly thinks it’s ‘deflationary’. But even fools know central banks will print money faster and faster Paying higher prices for energy…”
“Markets will react quickly to OPEC’s surprise output cut this weekend,” said financial commentary site The Kobeissi Letter continue in your own analysis. “Oil prices could bounce back above $80, which is something central banks don’t want when they’re trying to fight inflation. Supply-side inflation will worsen on this news.”
Conversely, higher inflation would increase the likelihood that the central bank will keep raising rates despite the ongoing banking crisis in the U.S. and abroad.
according to latest estimates Fed Watch Tool The president of CME Group said that the market currently believes that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% in May.
Fed target rate probability chart.Source: CME Group
Bitcoin Price Rises After OPEC+ News
Initially, Bitcoin was also under pressure from the OPEC+ decision, as the price fell below $28,000 over the weekend, ending the week with disappointing results.
However, at the time of writing, the bitcoin price has bounced back and is trading at $27,872.
Popular trading account Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that the price drop helped Bitcoin close another CME futures gap, resulting in classic trading behavior on Monday.
$bitcoin As we often see, the CME gap narrowed quickly on Monday. pic.twitter.com/KKbnsrucvW
— Daan Crypto Exchange (@DaanCrypto) April 3, 2023
Analytical account Skew tracked short-term developments while predicting an “even more shocking reaction” in the new week.
A sweep of the $29,000 high is at least on target so far.
Volume is fairly low so far, expect a bigger reaction this week https://t.co/xCCoUqjNvR pic.twitter.com/gU3RSzUiut
– Skew (@52kskew) April 3, 2023
Looking ahead, however, crypto education and analysis site IncomeSharks is here to stay maintain A bearish outlook for BTC.
“I can’t help but see the double-top McDonald’s pattern. Now Bitcoin has broken the diagonal trendline with low volume and weak OBV. Objective logic and sentiment say sell/short this, and I don’t see any reason to be bullish in the short term. “
BTC/USD chart.Source: IncomeSharks/Twitter
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital is also unsure about Bitcoin’s future.
“It is unclear whether BTC is forming the second part of the double top. If BTC is to fully develop the pattern and form an M-like shape, it needs to drop to $27,000 (blue) soon. Slip to $27,000 -> Two peaks confirmed. This is worth considering. “
BTC/USD chart.Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter
New Week, New Bitcoin Mining Records
The fundamentals of the Bitcoin network are not pessimistic this week.
according to According to the latest estimate of BTC.com, the difficulty of Bitcoin will be automatically corrected in about two days, and the difficulty will increase again.
After the adjustment, the mining difficulty will reach 47.92 trillion, an increase of 2.3%, setting a record high for this indicator.
An overview of the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network. Source: BTC.com
Data from MiningPoolStats programme A similar upward trend has been seen in the hash rate, which according to some recent results reached a record high of 400 exahash per second (EH/s).
Sam Wouters, a research analyst at mining company River, analyzed factors that could trigger the rapid growth, saying that as prices rise, drilling rigs may come back into service.
“There are rumors that some large public miners have large unused ASIC inventories. Even though the price of Bitcoin was so low last year and a large amount of inventory came online, at some point the network reached the maximum capacity it could handle,” he said in The Twitter thread on the 27th wrote. 3.
“Now prices are picking up, and as time goes by, more machines in stock come online.”
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode programme Miners have started trying to hold more bitcoin than they earn.
Calculated on a 30-day rotation basis, the changes in miners’ net positions turned positive again after two weeks of decline.
A chart of changes in the net position of Bitcoin miners. Source: Glassnode
Unshakable BTC supply hits new record
Bitcoin is known for its ability to create supply shocks, but data The latest highlights a long-term trend.
Despite the rise in BTC prices this year, the available supply that has been dormant for a decade or more is now at an all-time high.
That record was broken again this week, with at least 2,691,418,953 BTC not leaving wallets since April 2013.
This equates to 12.81% of the total planned maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoins, or 13.91% of the supply mined to date.
The last active BTC supply was at least 10 years ago.Source: Glassnode/Twitter
Therefore, any significant interest in BTC means that buyers have less and less BTC to buy. Glassnode confirmed that despite a slight increase in 2023, balances on exchanges remain close to their lowest levels since early 2018.
Chart of bitcoin balances on exchanges. Source: Glassnode
Cryptocurrency market sentiment has yet to price in the possibility of this particular pullback.
according to The classic sentiment indicator Crypto Greed and Fear Index, the current overall market sentiment is “greedy”.
As of April 3, the measured greed index was 63/100, close to the highest level since Bitcoin peaked in November 2021.
“Cryptocurrency Market Is Overhyped,” Analysis Site Game of Trades warn at the end of last month.
Although high, the level of greed, as the index describes it, has room to grow significantly before hitting the “extreme” region around 90 – a classic sign of an imminent major market correction.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Source: alternative.me
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As reported by Cointelegraph