Bitcoin remains on track to hit $180,000 by the next halving cycle, according to a longtime market participant.
in a analyze Just announced on March 3, DecentTrader trading suite co-founder Filbfilb added to his bullish outlook for BTC in the coming years.
Filbfilb Believes in the Bitcoin Halving Cycle
While BTC is approaching the $30,000 mark, traders are highly skeptical of a 2023 bull run, making sky-high price predictions unpopular.
Two $1 million predictions from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and former Coinbase operator Balaji Srinivasan continue to spark controversy following the 2022 crypto winter.
With these predicted prospects in mind, Filbfilb turned to raw mathematics to identify some possible macro tops and bottoms for Bitcoin after the next block reward halving.
Scheduled for the end of March next year, the halving will again reduce the block reward paid to miners by 50%. During the first four-year cycle after the halving, BTC exhibited a pattern of behavior that continues to this day.
“Using the days of the Bitcoin halving index (Bitcoin’s inflation rate just halved), we can see that the crypto king peaks 368-550 days after the halving and then bottoms out 779-914 days after the cycle ,” concluded Filbfilb.
By creating a “price curve,” his analysis shows that it is possible to get a rough idea of where BTC will top and bottom in the upcoming halving cycle.
“Combined with expected halving dates, days leading up to cycle tops and bottoms, and extrapolations from price data, the model can be used to predict future cycle highs and lows. Future.”
Bitcoin Price Curve Chart | Source: DecentTrader
Bitcoin price hitting $200,000 or more?
Therefore, if the data trends for 2013, 2017, and 2021 remain the same, then 2025 will see a “double top” setup, where Bitcoin peaks above $200,000 twice.
By calculation, the corresponding bear market low is about $50,000 a year later.
While acknowledging that the top trajectory of price volatility and relative decline will decline over time, Filbfilb interpreted the general trend in global digital stores of value as supporting Bitcoin bulls.
For his part, however, he sees the top of the next cycle coming in slightly below what the numbers suggest — around $180,000 since February.
“I recently announced $180,000 as my next cycle goal. I’m still sticking to that level.”
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As reported by Cointelegraph