According to Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, bitcoin appears to be mirroring the performance of the first half of 2019, marking a steady recovery from a year-long bear market for bitcoin and a possible touch around $45,000 next month.
Bitcoin is up 80% this year, sharply outperforming traditional risk assets, including the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Prices rebounded after falling 76% in 12 months and bottoming out in November 2022.
According to Lund, the decline and subsequent recovery were similar in duration and trajectory to the pattern seen during the 2018-2019 bear market.
“Both cycle bottoms lasted about 370 days. Returns between peak and trough 510 days later in both cycles were 60%. In 2018, the bear market rally lasted 556 days after the 2017 peak on June 29, 2019 Days, down 34% from peak,” Lund said.
“While history is unlikely to fully repeat itself if this cycle continues, Bitcoin will peak around May 20 at $45,000.”
Bitcoin fell 84 percent in December 2018 to nearly $3,100. The trend changed over the next few months, rising to $3,700 in early 2019 and as high as $13,800 by the end of June.
Crypto watchers on Twitter dismissed Bitcoin’s year-to-date gains as a “damn bullish move” as traders continued to sell off in the first quarter.
“Hateful” bull markets typically begin when pessimism is at its peak. It reaches a point of excitement when investors who are reducing risk and anticipating a long-term bearish correction start to feel ill-informed and enter an uptrend.
“The nasty 2019 rally ended with a notable high before Bitcoin continued down 40-60% from the 2017 ATH. The early 2023 rally has every indication of being a hateful protest,” Lund noted.
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According to CoinDesk
