Bitcoin rallied above $29,000 as the US prepares to release CPI data on April 12. Traders debate whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will pivot.
Bitcoin now rallied to a 10-month high today (April 11) as traders await this week’s April 12 consumer price index (CPI) report for clarity. more about Fed’s fight against inflation.
If the CPI report shows a drop in inflation, it could be the next catalyst that could spur a bullish move for BTC.
At the time of writing the BTC price has risen to $29,700, up 4.8% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin’s intraday gain came along with a drop in US stocks.
See also: April CPI data may affect Bitcoin
Motivation before CPI
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release March CPI data on April 12, which is expected to show inflation falling to 5.1% from 6.0% year-on-year.
Slowing CPI may cause Fed transition to a more moderate direction.
Bitcoin’s nearly $30,000 rally is showing crypto traders have priced in inflation down, which, in turn, could lead to a potential Fed pivot.
However, the DXY index, which tracks the greenback’s strength against a basket of leading foreign currencies, gained 0.7% on April 10, coupled with weaker US equity markets, suggesting that Macro investors see the possibility of an interest rate hike ahead.
In fact, the market sees a 70% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its meeting in May, according to the CME. That could be because the tightening labor market gives the Fed more incentive to keep raising lending rates going forward.
How much can Bitcoin hit in April?
From a fundamental perspective, bitcoin price looks poised to hit $30,000 ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference. However, to say whether bitcoin can sustain above this level depends on the Fed’s inflation data.
From a technical point of view, BTC must close above its weekly resistance range, defined by the $29,500 to $32,000 area, to move towards the $40,000 target.
This range acts as support during the sessions from December 2020 to February 2021, May 2021 to July 2021 and January 2022 to March 2022.
In the event of a pullback from the mentioned range, BTC price is at risk of a sharp drop towards the 50-week EMA (red wave), near $25,250, and the 200-week EMA (blue wave), near $25,000. .
See also: Bitcoin outperforms five major stock indexes in Q1 2023