Bitcoin started the week below $30,000 as analysts’ short-term support retest predictions came true.
The leading cryptocurrency fell the old-fashioned way after the latest week’s close, fully wiping out fresh gains, but will prices bounce back?
With a rather dull week for macro data, catalysts may lie elsewhere as BTC price action settles into a key support zone.
Most traders are at risk because last week offered an opportunity to reinvest in altcoins as the momentum of Bitcoin itself cooled. Given the current retracement, one will be watching to see if these altcoins can hold higher.
Basically, Bitcoin activity appears to be continuing as network fundamentals are at or near all-time highs and there are no clear signs of downside risk this week.
It may be too early to determine how price performance will affect holders, but the temptation to sell at 10-month highs is clear, with roughly 75% of BTC’s total supply in profit.
This article will explore potential bitcoin price triggers for this week.
Bitcoin price unsteady at $30,000
After a “boring” weekend for BTC price action, volatility was back to old-fashioned style by the end of the week on April 16.
At this point, BTC is back above $30,000, marking the first major retest of support since hitting a 10-month high above $31,000 last week.
Traders and analysts have predict This move, which I believe will constitute a healthy retracement, prepares for the continuation of the uptrend.
“Buying back everything I made a profit on. I will wait for BTC price to drop below $29,700 and ETH $2,000. Worst case, I will make less money on the overall position. Best case, I make a lot money. But overall, enough risk can be identified to get me back in.”
At the time of writing, this prediction appears to be correct as BTC retreated to $29,382.
Among them is Michaël van de Poppe, founder and chief executive of trading firm Eight, who has his eye on buying just below $30,000 but holding out in the event of a deeper correction. Open to options.
“Bitcoin is headed to long territory. Back at the bottom of the range, a break above that range could be seen as an entry point to $32,000. $28,600 could also be a long-term entry point, but I don’t think we’re going to start making new highs at this point .”
BTC Price Chart | Source: michael van der pop
Analytical resource Skew pointed to sharp price drops across exchanges, referring to a “clear divergence” between spot sellers and derivatives traders.
“Spots are driving the sell-off on the daily chart here. There is a stark difference between selling spot on fresh price rallies and being long derivatives on higher prices.”
Prominent trader and analyst Rekt Capital continues exhibit Optimistic note:
“This is exactly what I call a retest. BTC is currently successfully retesting the top of the bull flag that price broke from a few days ago. Staying here would be a good sign to contribute to the continuation.”
The accompanying chart shows that BTC is almost above a key trendline on the daily time frame.
BTC Price Chart | Source: Rector Capital
However, trader Daan Crypto Trades at show A tug of war between bulls and those who are only trading within the current range.
“Bitcoin traders trading ranges are having fun while breakout traders are stuck with off range/range swings. Range swings likely to continue until one side gives up.”
BTC Price Chart | Source: Daan Encrypted Trading
Earnings reports dominate macro debate
The next few days will offer risk-on asset traders some respite following a week of key macroeconomic data.
U.S. jobless claims and manufacturing data are due at the weekend, but the macro focus is on earnings.
Because after recent events, Tesla and Netflix, along with a host of banking heavyweights, are closely watched by market participants.
“Earnings season is officially here,” financial commentary source The Kobeissi Letter summarize.
Last week, cryptocurrency-focused financial commentator Tedtalksmacro concluded that the current environment is very favorable for Bitcoin to continue to rise.
“Prices break bearish structure, macro data tends to be favorable, momentum oscillators reset + USD liquidity above pre-tightening levels…however, most remain bullish.” Cut short positions to new lows. The nearly 500-day bear market has recently formed a strong trend. “
source: Tedtalks macro
When it comes to stocks, however, things look even more chaotic, with market participants agreeing that it’s difficult to define.
Sven Henrich, CEO of NorthmanTrader said: call More evidence of a breakout makes the S&P 500’s “bull market” story stand.
“Someday they will be right, but in my view, based on history, a new bull market will not be confirmed until the SPX breaks above the 20-month moving average and sustains the trend. So, protect it as support.”
Henrich also looked at the “trapped bear” statement from Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors.
“Another sign here is the weekly 100 moving average above 4200. While technically bullish since the October lows, the market is approaching key resistance levels with only the VIX number above the bottom of a multi-year uptrend. According to the U.S. (Fed ) reserve staff, is the recent liquidity injection (which has helped dampen volatility) enough to sustain the move above resistance as the economy nears recession? That’s the big question I think people have to ask.”
VIX Chart S&P 500 Index and Volatility Index | source: Sven Henrich
Bitcoin mining difficulty hits fifth consecutive all-time high
Bitcoin network fundamentals seem to be becoming a bi-weekly practice, producing nothing but new all-time highs.
This week, the difficulty will be slightly higher — currently estimated at 0.45%, according to monitoring resource BTC.com.
overview element network foundation Bitcoin | source: bitcoin network
It would be the fifth consecutive increase, which has not happened since February 2022.
From 2023 alone, the difficulty has increased by more than 4 trillion, and the computing power is constantly setting new highs.
Raw data from Mining Pool Statistics The most recent all-time high on April 15 is estimated at 413.4 exahashes per second (EH/s). On January 1st, the estimated hash rate was only 285 EH/s.
Bitcoin Hashrate Raw Data | Source: MiningPoolStats
However, as previously reported, changes in the hash rate may be meaningless in the case of Bitcoin if measured by accurate metrics.
As Jameson Lopp, co-founder and CTO of Casa, put it in a report postal A new blog post on the same day has an all-time high hash rate estimate that looks like but is unlikely.
“Whenever you see someone claiming that the network hash rate has changed significantly, you should question the methodology and time frame used to arrive at that estimate,” he later concluded when comparing different hash rate estimation methods.
Only Bitcoin Veterans Left
With $30,000 emerging and testing as support, those weathering the 2022 bear market seem to be hard-pressed to resist the temptation to sell.
According to data from analyst firms glass nodethe average on-chain transaction volume hit a multi-month high.
Average BTC transaction volume | Source: Glassnode
All in all, more than three-quarters of the mined BTC supply is now profitable – the most in a year and arguably a clear incentive to lock in some of the profits.
Percentage of Profitable BTC Addresses | Source: Glassnode
After analyzing the market composition, Checkmate – Glassnode’s leading on-chain analyst has some get conclusion encourage.
After the 2022 bear market shock, long-term holders or speculators now greatly outnumber short-term holders or speculators, who are more resistant to price swings.
“Nobody knows we’re up 100% off the lows except the stubborn remaining holders. They’ll probably only really come back as we get closer to the ATH.
People who come here for a few months or more spend almost nothing. They seem to demand and demand a higher price before selling. I’m pretty sure about that.”
Long and Short Bitcoin Holders | Source: Checkmate
Crypto market ‘greed’ edged up to November 2021 peak
Bitcoin is still far from its all-time high of $69,000, but one indicator that evokes the mood of November 2021 is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
The return of prices to the $30,000 level has been accompanied by a rapid increase in “greed” across the crypto market, data shows.
As of April 17, the indicator hit 69/100, just about 10% below the 75/100 mark when BTC traded at recent highs.
So sentiment could get overheated and worries seem to be running rampant.
“Now it’s not an indicator I can vouch for because it’s lagging, but it does give a good indication of when to look to reduce risk and be cautious. The last time the 75 area was reached was on July 11, 2021, when Bitcoin’s It’s trading at over $65,000,” notes prominent trader Tony. reasoning weekend on this index.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index | Source: Alternative me
- Crypto optimists think summer is coming
- Cathie Wood: Bitcoin and Ethereum Work Like Gold
- Bitcoin shows signs of weakness, will the market correct?
As reported by Cointelegraph