According to two analysts at CryptoQuant, history shows that Bitcoin’s value is expected to soar in 2023. Experts shared their predictions for the 2018-2019 academic year based on trends and historical patterns of BTC price movements during market cycles.
Oinonen_t Analyst consider Effective address data on the BTC chain for the 2018-19 cycle, which was found to have formed three separate bottoms during the reversal.
According to analysts, the 2021-2023 cycle also exhibits a similar structure, as active addresses establish three separate lows.
Therefore, oionen_t believes that the market may see price increases throughout 2023 after the triple bottom structure of the last major cycle. The analyst further noted:
“If Bitcoin follows the triple bottom structure of the last major cycle, we will see a bull market in 2023. The current “fair value” of Bitcoin is $43,598, which is close to our last forecast of $46,092”.
Source: CryptoQuant
In addition, analyst Woominyu study Short-term and long-term holder behavior relative to the fair value of that coin.
According to Woominkyu, historical precedent shows that long-term BTC holders have consistently outperformed short-term holders during periods when prices managed to exceed fair value.
This usually leads to bullishness for BTC. Woominkyu noted that in the current market cycle, long-term holders are expected to take control of the market and gradually push prices higher.
“Things don’t seem to have changed significantly from before, and it looks like long-term holders will gradually take control of the market and rebound again.”
Source: CryptoQuant
Good News for Bitcoin Holders
Despite a temporary dip in price on March 3, which failed to recapture the $25,000 mark last month, on-chain data shows investors remain in the black.
According to data from mood, BTC’s market value to fair value (MVRV) ratio remains in positive territory. Generally speaking, a positive MVRV ratio for an asset means that if all holders were to sell at the current price, they would generate twice the average profit.
Furthermore, activity on exchanges shows an increase in supply outside of exchanges and a corresponding decrease in supply within exchanges.
This is generally considered a bullish sign, as it means many investors prefer to hold rather than sell. This helps drive asset values up.
Source: Santiment
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