Review of last week’s trading plan
In plan last week, we had quite the right judgment in the first half, when predicting BTC will sideway in the price range from 23,500 to 25,200 USD and continue to wait for the opportunity to long altcoin. Some long/buy spot bets have good returns.
However, after that, the price dumped heavily and broke out of the sideway. At this moment, we need to accept the plan is wrong. So, for the time being, I let you guys stop all the long bets and wait for a new plan.
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Bitcoin (BTC) analysis and commentary next week
As such, the price could not really break out from the weekly resistance (area 24,200 USD) but only created 2 fake-breakouts. This is an important signal that the selling at this price area is still overwhelming the buying.
In the D-frame we see some positive signs as the price remains above the 22,800 support and there is a bullish trendline “support” below. Therefore, in the next few days, BTC price may not continue its downward trend but sideway in the range of 22,800 – 24,000 USD.
At this point, we will have 2 plans for BTC:
The price bounced back to the $24,000-24,200 zone with weak volume, then a head-and-shoulders pattern is possible and the price will continue to reverse back to the $23,000 mark and below.
In case the price breaks below support and trendline, the price could go lower towards 20,000 – 21,600 USD.
So, with this plan, we can short entry when:
- The price returned to 24,000 – 24,200 and the buying power weakened, the small timeframe appeared sell signals. This entry is early but will be more risky.
- The price breaks out of the lower resistance and the trendline, then retests this area (somewhere around 22,800 – 23,000 USD) => At that time, the head and shoulders pattern will be confirmed.
This plan will sideway in the range of 22,800 – 24,200 USD, then respect the support and retest the trendline and bounce to continue following the uptrend.
For this plan to work, we need 2 important signals:
- The price respects the $22,800 support and the lower trendline.
- The price broke out to $24,200 strongly.
Thus, our job now is mainly to wait for the reaction at the important price areas of 22,800 and 24,200 USD.
Like last week’s plan, I think BTC.D is quite bullish and you should close your positions for Altcoins. The reason is quite understandable, when BTC.D goes like that, whether BTC increases or decreases, Altcoins are quite bad. Currently, BTC.D is sideways in D bracket, we don’t have much signal to talk about it right now. However, there is a high possibility that BTC.D may correct slightly and then break up to continue the previous trend (higher probability).
Some plans for Altcoins
DYDX broke out of the W bracket and is still showing respect to the old resistance area (currently support, 2.3 USD). We have the right to think of a beautiful scenario after the sideway DYDX will continue to increase.
With DYDX, you can enter orders according to the following 2 plans:
Plan 1: The price broke out against the D frame and the trendline (the area of 2.9 USD), then retested.
Plan 2: The price continued sideways and returned to the 2.3 – 2.5 USD zone one more time to get liquidity.
In addition to technical analysis, DYDX also benefits from fud of Binance Australia when arbitrarily closing traders’ positions. Once again, the issue of decentralization of exchanges is being quite concerned by the community.
BLUR is also having a pretty potential setup to trade on the 4H frame.
You can wait for the price to break the resistance at $0.88 then retest and enter a long position. This setup will not take effect as long as the price cannot break out of the $0.88 zone.
Next week won’t be too much of a big news to watch out for. You can focus on 2 quite important news below:
On February 28, 2023, at 22:00 (Vietnam time), Conference Board (CB) will publish data on consumer listings. The higher the number, the higher the consumer confidence. If the published data is higher than expected, it will be seen as a positive trend for the USD and vice versa.
Next, on March 2, at 8:30 p.m., the United States will publish the data of Initial Jobless Claims. If the actual data is higher than the forecast, it is negative for the USD and vice versa.
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