Ethereum’s native token, ETH, is expected to grow to $3,000 by the second quarter of 2023 after a 55% rally at the end of the previous quarter.
ETH Price Approaches Potential Breakout
ETH’s price has more than doubled since bottoming out around $880 in June, overcoming a string of negative events including the FTX failure, rate hikes and tightening U.S. regulations.
As a result, the top altcoin by market cap has drawn an ascending triangle, which is confirmed by ascending trendline support and horizontal resistance. The pattern shows active buying, with a gradually higher bottom and a top that stays around old levels, implying a certain level of higher selling pressure.
As of April 3, ETH price is testing a potentially broken horizontal resistance zone ($1,700-1,820).
ETH 3-day price chart and ‘Ascending Triangle’ bottom established | Source: Tradingview
A breakout will be confirmed if the price closes above the resistance zone on higher volume. Also, an ascending triangle breakout target is calculated as the length of the triangle plus the height of the triangle.
In other words, the bullish target for ETH is in the 3,350-3,900 range, depending on where traders see the support of the rising trendline of the triangle, as shown by T1 and T2 in the chart above. This represents an 80% increase in June.
Conversely, a pullback from the $1,700-$1,820 range could delay the bullish pattern and lead to a broader correction.
ETH whale accumulation remains strong
From an on-chain perspective, ETH’s short-term and long-term trends appear to favor the bulls.
According to the latest data from Santiment, most of the ETH whale pool has accumulated in recent weeks. For example, addresses holding balances of 1,000-10,000 ETH (blue in the image below) saw a 0.5% increase in ETH supply in March.
ETH supply distribution among investors holding at least 1,000 ETH | Source: Santiment
Likewise, the 1 million to 10 million ETH pools (brown) and the 10 million to 100 million ETH pools increased by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.
The 100,000-1,000,000 ETH (pink) and 10,000-100,000 ETH (orange) address pools seem to have absorbed the selling pressure, hence the bullish move.
Meanwhile, growth can be attributed to the network’s PoS contracts — either directly or through third parties such as Lido DAO (LDO).
Total staked value of ETH on Ethereum 2.0 | Source: Glassnode
Net ETH deposited in official Ethereum 2.0 addresses has surpassed 18 million after a roughly 3.5% increase in March.
Deposits increased ahead of the Ethereum Shanghai and Capella upgrade on April 12, allowing investors to withdraw ETH from PoS smart contracts. Currently, this is not possible.
MVRV Z-Score: ETH Price Bottom Reversed
Additionally, Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score entering the usual period before long ETH rallies is also an interesting signal of interest.
MVRV Z-score Ethereum | Source: Glassnode
The MVRV Z-Score assesses when ETH is overvalued and undervalued relative to “fair value”. Typically, the MVRV Z-score represents market tops (red zones) when market values are higher than actual values, and market bottoms (blue zones) when they are not.
ETH’s previous price rise coincided with a rebound in the MVRV Z-Score from the blue zone, suggesting the same could happen in the next 3 months.
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Ming Ying
As reported by Cointelegraph
